Dawn of a New Era! A piece well-written by Desbele Kahsai on Awate (May 04, 2009) was the motivation for my article. It just so happened that I had the exact same topic in my mind when I noticed that what I thought would be new was already on the net (with a little twist of the knot and a little extension of the scope than the narrow focus of brother Desbele on a mini unification incident in an episode of Days of Our Lives in the Eritrean opposition drama).No offense to the two respected EDP and EPP and their dignified membership.
I am taking it for granted that they would not claim their unification characterizes an “Era in Eritrean history”. The possibility that Desbele, myself, and a thousand-and-one others have thought of the same topic at the same time fascinated me and brought back old memories of a good friend who liked to argue (for the sake of argument—convincingly to my modest argumentation skills) that history is not a collection of random incidents. He would reason that just like the changes in our bodies are subject to a well-defined (mechanically determined) biological clock, societies have a similar clock that tells people when change is due and when it does there is no stopping it. His point was that major changes in history take place at regular intervals like babies get born 9 months after conception (he might have read it somewhere—I don’t know).
For Eritrea he said political pregnancies lasts 10 years and at the turn of every decade we should expect a new baby (we may not like some of them). This is how he used to convince us: 1889 – Italian colonization; 1941 – British occupation; 1952 – Federation; 1961 – armed struggle; 1971 – Shaebia; 1981 – Shaebia’s monopoly of the armed struggle; 1991 – Independence; 2001 – G15 challenge to the PFDJ. If this logic makes sense to you then Desbele is right: it is the Dawn of a New Era; the nation is in labor; the new baby should arrive no later than 2011.Forget that I am writing nonsense and for a moment, just close your eyes and imagine what the new baby will look like. I tried it and all I saw was another bustard except this one had two horns, a tail and some hoofs. It might actually be twins and one of the embryos might well be the one described by Desbele beginning with the EDP-EPP merger and subsequently a bigger basket that orbits around the PFDJ. But the other embryo of the twins is more interesting beginning with a foursome merger of the ESF (Eritrean Solidarity Front) and subsequently a very probable regional nightmare that resembles a blend of Darfur.
Sudan itself has been in labor for quite a while now and its 16—year delivery schedule (the standard set by Numeiri for uninterrupted dictatorship) is long overdue. A couple of interesting and detrimental developments are underway in Sudan. The South is placing its final ornamental touches for officializing its secession in 2011 (according to the Naivasha Agreement). Both parties to the conflict are racing to the finish line and they know full well what it will take to cross it. Over the table: the SPLA is consolidating the infrastructural setup of an independent state including the delimitation of its borders with the North through the ICJ and everybody is getting a haircut for a Hafash-Wudubat-like celebration. The North is furious at the fact that buying the Southern Sudanese guerrilla leaders out of their determination to leave the union has not worked this time and furious at the reality that their politicians are wasting valuable time in appealing to the goodwill of determined SPLA leaders and helplessly watching the South slip away.
Under the table: everybody is getting ready for the stick. Apart from amassing armaments, both sides are concentrating on one aspect, building alliances, which will very likely tip the balance when the time comes for a Southern flag to fly equally with its Northern counterpart. Isaias and his thugs are betting on conflict to enable them to pressure for more concessions in Eastern Sudan (including a freehand to silence the “opposition”). The Northern political establishment on the other hand is in deep political turmoil with the two power houses of the fundamentalist movement at each other’s throats, the squeeze on the rest of the irrelevant political mob (of traditional Sudanese politics) has been relinquished and the country has turned into a de facto paradise for activists.
The Darfur conflict has drained the North out of its material and moral resources, turning the Honorable President into a fugitive and a laughing clown. Hassan Al-Turabi, the leader of the other powerhouse and arguably the most influential guru of the East African fundamentalist movement (known for his reckless pragmatism) is celebrating that at the core of the Darfuri rebel movement is one of his most loyal disciples, Khalil Ibrahim—the leader of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM)—a broad based movement of cross-border tribes linking Sudan and Chad.These incidents are only part of the story that includes developments in Ethiopia and Somalia (which are not discussed here).
The focus here is on Sudan, the godfather (Baliga) of the 2011 Eritrean baby. I do believe that the Eritrean Solidarity Front (ESF) is a genuine and spontaneous Eritrean initiative and is no puppet to any ambiguous ghostly encounters in Sudanese politics. In fact, the blue prints of its political program as described in their official founding statement of May 01, 2009 has (formally) been around since at least 2005. It was just smoldering fire, coming out as the winds of change gradually blew the thin cover of ashes away. Until recently referring to the PFDJ as anything that had to do with ethnocentric interests would usher you a reaction similar to that of a child born out of wedlock in Pakistan’s Swat Valley. Today there is no under table talk! You can say whatever you want and still solicit a warm hug. For the lowlands: the debate is over and the consensus is unanimous that we do not belong under an ethnic dictatorship.
For the highland’s elite: Plan B has been activated; the Priory of Zion is at work. Distinguished thinkers such as Prof. Berekhet H (and echoes) are openly selling their resumes of “we never wanted to separate in the first place”; others such as Prof. Tesfazion M are going straight for the cake and formally apologizing that “their Eritrea” screwed up and is coming back to Inat-Ager. Don’t get me wrong. I strongly support the idea that “their Eritrea” belongs with Ethiopia and they did screw up.A Darfur style “tribal” conflict is imminent in eastern Sudan. The Eritrean government (along with racing to change the demographic realities in the Eritrean lowlands) with a passive thumbs-up from the Sudanese government (Al-Beshir’s faction) is doing its best to counter-balance the overflow from a growing probability of Kurdistan (“our Eritrea”) across the border.
Al-Turabi’s faction on the other hand has succeeded in radicalizing Eastern Sudan and their Eritrean extensions beyond recognition. The search for another Khalil Ibrahim in the East seems to have settled where it belongs: deep inside the Eritrean lowlands. Abu-Suheil, chosen to head the first phase of the ESF is an intelligent pragmatic politician, a ruthless militant with experience far beyond Eritrea, and a blind loyalist of Sheikh Turabi. They could not have chosen a better king for a messy rink. The ESF (or whatever might follow its legacy—given the unpredictable buoyancy of Eritrean opposition alliances) is a milestone and a turning point in Eritrean politics as it is the first time that a major opposition organization (other than the ethno-religious ones) has openly accused the PFDJ of ethnic prejudice (to say the least).
Sudan’s regional outlook is evolving rapidly and with its own existence at stake with hot potatoes in the South and the West, they have come to care less for the stability of others. And if they do, given the magnitude of their current and future challenges and the flashbacks from their 1990s nightmares along their Eastern border, Isaias’ Eritrea is the last one in their compassionate list. Another major motivator to the change in the way the Sudan handles the Eritrean opposition is the Sudanese government’s success in launching (helping to shape) an effective armed resistance against Chad practically limiting its capacity to help the rebellion in Darfur (something that should have been a lot easier along their Eastern border with Eritrea). There is a growing conviction among Sudanese officials (handling the Eritrea file) that the problem lies in the substance (not the structure) of the Eritrean opposition.
Some may argue that my analysis gives more weight to the Sudanese influence than it deserves. The Truth is simple: the Eritrean opposition is too weak and disoriented to resist influence and the playground is shared between the two sides. Nothing is clear though. For Sudan, the short-term payback is that by the time the South and possibly the West is ready for them, Isaias will be too busy to cause trouble, probably in a real cowboy hat and tighter pants than the ones he wears in his “inspection” visits in Gash-Barks. Weyenti will just pull up a couple of lawn chairs around Badime and watch their stepson and old friend back in shape.
The final outcome (the 2021 baby) will very likely depend on what we put into the genes of the upcoming (2011) baby. The rest of the opposition (the irrelevant mob including the EPP-EDP stuff), mainly those calling for a status quo of ethno-religious justice—practically endorsing PFDJ’s policies towards the lowlands, may either own the claims (made by ESF) of ethno-religious injustice and serve as a moderating factor of opposition politics; or they may join the disco against “awrajawyan” and “wegenawyan”.
I hope nothing of what I have written made sense to you (because it doesn’t – until we find out who is buying the drinks for the big show).